## ----include = FALSE----------------------------------------------------------
knitr::opts_chunk$set(collapse = TRUE, comment = "#>", fig.width = 7, fig.height = 7, fig.align = "center")

## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
library(dplyr)
library(ggplot2)
library(SCtools)
library(Synth)
theme_set(theme_minimal())

## ----russia-graph, fig.cap="Trend of Alcohol Consumption in Russia"-----------
alcohol %>% 
  filter(country_name == "Russian Federation") %>% 
	ggplot(aes(year, consumption))+
	geom_line()+
	geom_vline(xintercept = 2006, color  = "orange")+
	labs(
		title = "Per Capita Alcohol Consumption in the Russian Federation Since 1990",
		subtitle = "The Russian government began a series of policy changes in 2003\nto reduce alcohol consumption",
		y = "Per Capita Consumption (L/person)",
		x = NULL,
		caption = "Data: World Health Organization"
	)

## ----fig.cap="Trends in Predictors in Russian Federation"---------------------
alcohol %>% 
  filter(country_name == "Russian Federation") %>% 
	select(year, consumption,labor_force_participation_rate:manufacturing) %>% 
	tidyr::gather(predictor, value, -year) %>% 
	ggplot(aes(year, value))+
	geom_line()+
		facet_wrap(~predictor, scales = "free")

## ----fig.cap="Review of Possible Donors", fig.width=5-------------------------
p1 <- alcohol %>% 
	mutate(my_color = ifelse(country_code == "RUS", "Russia", "Other")) %>% 
	ggplot(aes(year, consumption, group = country_code, color = my_color))+
	geom_line() +
	scale_color_manual(values = c("grey", "black", "white"))+
	ylim(5,15)+
	xlim(1990,2005)
p1

## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
comparison_states <- c("USA", "UK", "UKR", "KAZ",
											 "GBR", "ESP", "DEU", "POL",
											 "FIN", "FRA", "GRC", "IRL",
											 "LTU", "ROU", "GEO", "MDA",
											 "SWE", "BEL", "BLR", "KGZ",
											 "CZE", "MEX", "SVN")

control_ids <- alcohol %>% 
	select(country_code,country_num) %>% 
	filter(country_code %in% comparison_states) %>% 
	distinct() %>% 
	pull(country_num)

## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
dataprep.out<-dataprep(
	    foo = as.data.frame(alcohol),
	    predictors = c("labor_force_participation_rate",
	                   "inflation",
	                   "mobile_cellular_subscriptions",
	                   "manufacturing"),
	    predictors.op = "mean",
	    dependent = "consumption",
	    unit.variable = "country_num",
	    time.variable = "year",
	    treatment.identifier = 142,
	    controls.identifier = control_ids,
	    time.predictors.prior = c(1991:2005),
	    time.optimize.ssr = c(2000:2005),
	    special.predictors = list(
      list("consumption", 2000:2005 ,"mean")),
	    unit.names.variable = "country_code",
	    time.plot = 1992:2015
	)

## ----echo=FALSE---------------------------------------------------------------
out <- readRDS("out.rds")

## ----eval=FALSE---------------------------------------------------------------
#  out <- synth(dataprep.out, Sigf.ipop = 3)

## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
solution <- out$solution.w %>% 
	as.data.frame()

solution$country_num <- rownames(solution)

solution %>% 
	mutate(country_num = as.numeric(country_num)) %>% 
	left_join(alcohol %>% 
	select(country_code,country_num) %>% 
	filter(country_code %in% comparison_states) %>% 
		distinct(), by = "country_num") %>% 
	ggplot(aes(reorder(country_code, w.weight), w.weight))+
	geom_col()+
	coord_flip()+
	labs(
		title = "Donor Weights by Country",
		y = NULL,
		x = "Weight"
	)

## ----fig.cap="Synthetic Russia vs Actual Russia for Alcohol Consumption per Capita"----
path.plot(synth.res = out, dataprep.res = dataprep.out, 
					Xlab = "per Capita Alcohol Consumption", )

## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
delta_out <- (dataprep.out$Y1plot - (dataprep.out$Y0plot %*% out$solution.w)) %>% 
	as.data.frame()

delta_out$year <- rownames(delta_out)

delta_out%>% 
	knitr::kable(caption = "Difference in Alcohol Consumption Between Synthetic and Actual Russia", digits = 2)

## ----echo=FALSE---------------------------------------------------------------
placebo <- readRDS("placebo.rds")

## ----eval=FALSE---------------------------------------------------------------
#  placebo <- generate.placebos(dataprep.out = dataprep.out,
#                               synth.out = out, strategy = "multicore")

## ----fig.cap="Placebo Plot for Control Units"---------------------------------
plot_placebos(placebo)

## -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
test_out <- mspe.test(placebo)
test_out$p.val

## ----fig.cap="Mean Squared Prediction Error Ratios for Russia and Donors"-----
mspe.plot(tdf = placebo)